The Path Towards Stability
At LPL Research, our 2023 investing outlook started with a theme of returning to normalcy. Considering 2022’s market volatility and the aftereffects of the pandemic, the idea of finding balance was certainly a welcomed change. It’s a theme we could all embrace six months ago and what we will continue to rally around through year-end.
That’s not to say that 2023 hasn’t come with its own set of challenges. We saw two regional banks fail in rapid-fire succession in March—and another closed its doors in May. Collectively representing over $530 billion in assets, the trio ranks as the second, third, and fourth largest bank failures to date.
We also held our breath as a last minute deal to raise the debt limit came together as the clock ticked closer to default. Despite the market gyrations these events caused and a banking sector still on tenterhooks, the overall financial system seems stable. Counterbalancing the challenges, some bright spots include:
- Inflation is under 5% at home, significantly lower than its 8.3% level this time last year
- The fed funds rate is approaching its apex as the Federal Reserve grapples with the unknown impacts yet to emerge from its aggressive tightening cycle
- Global inflation has ticked down from its 8.7% high in 2022, and is following a slow descent to a projected 6.5% for 2023
By and large, these are things we know, definitively or directionally, a guiding force that shapes our perspective on the next six months or so. Like anything, they come with some potential opportunities for investors—opportunities that may present themselves in international equities, core bonds (particularly if the Fed is indeed done raising rates), and industrials to name a few.
“The insights in this report will help position investors, along with guidance from their financial professional, to achieve their goals.”
– Marc Zabicki, LPL Chief Investment Officer
On the flip side, there are uncertainties out there. Recession is probably the biggest unknown, with some of the biggest questions around when it might hit, how long it might last, and how significant it could it be. That said, any recession that occurs would appear to be more in the mild range at this point. Perhaps recession is the largest unknown, but we should also factor in the possibility for interest-rate volatility. For example, rates could move higher if inflation remains stubbornly high. Or, they could see a fairly sizable move lower in the event of recession.
Ultimately, how rate volatility resolves itself will be a big driver for markets. Clearly the LPL Research team doesn’t have a crystal ball. But there are two things we know. The insights in this report will help position investors, along with guidance from their financial professional, to achieve their goals. Second, our seasoned team of experts will be by your side, providing guidance and actionable insights as the second half unfolds. And for these two things, a crystal ball is not needed.
Below is an overview of some topics we discuss in the 2023 MidYear Outlook. Download the full publication for more detailed information.
- ECONOMY OVERVIEW
- GEOPOLITICS OVERVIEW
- STOCKS OVERVIEW
- COMMODITIES OVERVIEW
- BONDS OVERVIEW
- ALTERNATIVES OVERVIEW
- CURRENCIES OVERVIEW
The baseline forecast is the domestic economy slides into recession in the late half of 2023 as consumer demand cools, especially for services. If job growth cools and the unemployment rate rises, consumers will likely experience declining disposable income, which could be the impetus for a recession as consumers pull back on spending. But in the near term, consumers are still unleashing pent-up demand for services. We expect the Fed to end its rate hiking campaign in the latter half of this year and introduce the possibility of a cut in rates as economic conditions weaken. But as inflation convincingly cools, markets will likely respond favorably to the slight pivot in Fed policy. So far, an improving Chinese economy has not had a material impact on global inflation.
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
All index data from FactSet.
All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy
For a list of descriptions of the indexes and economic terms referenced, please visit our website at lplresearch.com/definitions
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC). Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor that is not an LPL affiliate, please note LPL makes no representation with respect to such entity.
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